Flurries ending this morning, between storm systems this weekend, wet again next week

   

Ongoing flooding across the area is definitely no surprise after seeing rainfall totals from Wednesday.  It looks like the highest reported total in our coverage area was Lacey’s Spring in Morgan County with just shy of 6 inches of rain, but many spots saw 4 inches or more of rain, and just about our entire coverage area had 2 inches of rain or more.  Many rivers and streams across the area are already at flood stage and are still rising, and this will continue for at least the next few days before more heavy rain expected next week.

Flurries and snow showers have been the talk over the past 24 hours though, with some of our Tennessee coverage counties getting as much as 3/4″ of snow in isolated areas, and many folks seeing at least flurries.  Those light snow showers will be wrapping up this morning, but clouds will linger through a large part of the day, but a few peeks of sun are expected during the afternoon.  Afternoon highs are only expected to reach the lower 40s.

A mostly quiet weather weekend is expected with the area in between storm systems.  A weak disturbance will pass by late tonight into Saturday bringing an increase in clouds, but recent model runs have looked much drier with this system than they did previously.  We still can’t rule out a stray shower on Saturday, but we’re only going with a 10% chance of rain and feel it’s not even important enough to show with the icon on the forecast graphics.  Afternoon highs will be a good 10 or so degrees warmer than your Friday, reaching the low 50s with a bit more sun breaking through the clouds.  Those clouds will be on the increase on Sunday ahead of the next system though, with a chance of showers returning after midnight.  Afternoon highs will be even warmer, near 60 degrees.

Next week just looks wet and even stormy at times as the front bringing the cooler weather now comes back north as a warm front and multiple systems ride the southwest flow aloft along the boundary.  Rainfall may be heavy at times during multiple periods of the week, and this will likely lead to more flooding issues.  The first round of heavy rain and thunderstorms looks to happen on Monday before the front waffles southward on Tuesday.  Showers are definitely possible on Tuesday, but as of now, don’t look quite as widespread.  The front moves back north of Wednesday as the main upper disturbance ejects eastward.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms become likely again later Wednesday into part of Thursday.  Depending on the track of the low, there may even be a risk of strong to severe storms again if we get into the warm sector of the storm system and tap into unstable air.  There’s WAY too much uncertainty to try to figure that out right now, but that is something we will be watching and analyzing in the days ahead.