Rain moves out, Cold end to the week, More rain going into early next week

Big weather changes are in store for the next couple of days across the area.  Rain is moving out of the picture this morning as the cold front moves through the area, and then the temperatures go the wrong way the rest of the day!  Morning temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s at the start of the day will drop into the low to mid 40s by afternoon as gusty northwest winds of 10-20 mph bring in much cooler air.  Clouds will hang tough, although there could be a few peeks of sunshine by late in the day.  Overnight, skies clear and winds become much lighter, and this will allow temperatures to drop quickly, with lows by daybreak Friday in the low to mid 20s.  It wouldn’t be a complete surprise if some of our colder areas in southern Tennessee or northern Lauderdale and Limestone Counties creep down as low as the 19 or 20 degree range.  And despite sunny skies on Friday, afternoon highs only manage to get near 40 degrees, with several of our reliable high resolution models suggesting we might not get out of the mid to upper 30s.  Friday night will feature one more really chilly night, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20 under clear skies and light winds.

Saturday is the start of a gradual but steady warming trend.  Mostly sunny skies will give way to an increase in clouds during the afternoon.  Highs will be cool, but not nearly as much as the days before, with afternoon highs in the lower 50s.  Even warmer still on Sunday, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy skies.  If we have a little more sun than currently expected, we can’t rule out low 60s.

We knew the break in the rain wouldn’t last forever, and our next weather system moves in early next week.  The front bringing the cooler air will move back northward quickly on Monday as a warm front.  Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 60s as southerly winds increase.  The chance of showers and storms will also increase by Monday night as the warm front comes north.  The main weather system moves through the area Tuesday and Tuesday evening.  Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 60s, and we can’t rule out lower 70s.  The Euro model is suggesting that, and it has done a great job with the past few systems.  It is also suggesting we *might* have to eye this system on Tuesday for the potential for stronger storms.  That is very much NOT a certainty at all, but even the Storm Prediction Center is starting to note that a risk of severe storms MAY be POSSIBLE by Tuesday, although they are not actually drawing out a risk area just yet.  We will certainly watch that in the coming days and fine tune the forecast as new data comes in.  That front moves through Tuesday night, with the next bout of cooler air moving in for the middle of next week.