Wet is the key word in the forecast for today. Rain is pretty much a certainty across the area at times through today, even though it won’t rain over the whole area for the entire day. However, from late morning into the mid afternoon, there may be several hours in there where most folks see a steady soaking rain. Some of that rain may be heavy at times too, but nothing close to the kind of flooding we have previously seen earlier in the month. The more widespread and steady rain will start shifting east by late afternoon, with many areas starting to catch a good break in the rain by the end of the day.
The Storm Prediction Center has decided to place some of our Mississippi and west Tennessee counties in a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms for today. That’s mainly for those stronger looking storms you see in northeast Arkansas into northwest Mississippi on that 4pm Future Radar image earlier in the post. A few of those storms may be strong with gusty winds or small hail. In all honesty, we do not expect any organized severe weather at all in our coverage area today. Those areas to the west will be more unstable than our area, with temperatures over there climbing into the 60s and dewpoints climbing into the low 60s as well, and they will also be closer to the dynamics of the storm system. Because of the clouds and rain across the area today, our temperatures will be locked into the 50s, and we just will not have a chance to get unstable for a severe weather risk here. High resolution models have those thunderstorms significantly weakening before they ever approach our western counties this evening. Don’t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder though. With a lack of instability across our coverage area and the dynamics with the storm system off to the northwest, it really wouldn’t shock us if that risk area from the Storm Prediction Center is removed for our Mississippi and Tennessee coverage counties in later updates today.
This first disturbance and its associated front moves through overnight, bringing an end to the rain, but colder air doesn’t quite move in just yet. We expect clouds to linger around on Tuesday as we will still be underneath the larger scale upper trough, but afternoon highs will still be able to climb into the upper 50s or even lower 60s despite that.
The main push of cold air associated with a second disturbance in the overall trough moves through on Wednesday with showers likely, especially during the morning. The surface cold front moves through around midday or early early afternoon, and then the temperatures drop quickly from the mid 40s into the mid 30s. As the temperatures fall into the 30s, some of the lingering showers behind the cold front might just transition over to a few light snow flurries. No impacts or issues are expected.
Cooler air is expected for the rest of the week, with overnight lows back into the 20s to lower 30s and afternoon highs in the 40s to lower 50s. A weak disturbance in the flow may allow for a few light showers or flurries early Saturday morning, but that again looks like a situation with no impacts expected, and models have been trending drier with that disturbance overall. Temperatures start to moderate as we head into the first day of March (Sunday) with afternoon highs in the mid 50s.