A break in the rain today. Showers and maybe flurries for Wednesday? Drier for the weekend though!

Today will be a pretty mild day, and more importantly a dry one, as we enjoy a break between disturbances.  Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 60s, and this will be the warmest day we have ahead of us until the beginning of next week.  The next weather system is on the way though, and shower chances return late tonight and especially by early Wednesday morning.

    

Showers continue at times for Wednesday but colder air will be moving in during the afternoon with temperatures dropping from the mid 40s into the mid 30s.  That may allow for lingering showers to switch over to light snow showers and snow flurries by late afternoon and during the evening.  As you can see, there is a good agreement in the models for that to happen.  Because of the limited moisture to work with since this will be a clipper instead of a Gulf low, and the isolated nature, we do NOT expect any significant impacts or accumulations.  We can’t rule out this being similar to other situations this winter though, where some areas may see a light dusting under heavier snow showers.

That wave exits Thursday night and colder air moves in with overnight lows into the upper 20s.  Another weak wave in the northwest flow aloft MIGHT spark off another round of spotty light showers or maybe even snow flurries Friday evening through early Saturday morning.  There’s a lower chance of that happening than with the Wednesday system, but we can’t rule it out.  IF it were to happen, we don’t expect any impacts.  Then, we dry out for the remainder of the weekend as a warming trend starts.  Afternoon highs by Sunday reach 60 under a mostly sunny sky.

Then, our attention turns to the west as we begin the week.  Southerly flow will bring increasing moisture to the area starting Monday, and that means the chance of showers will return, along with warmer weather.  A bigger storm system comes out of the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday though, and that brings increasing thunderstorm chances.  It’s WAY entirely too far out to try to guess exact timing or intensity or exact areas to watch, but early large scale indications suggest this MIGHT be a system we have to watch for potential for strong or maybe severe storms.  Our graphic highlights a Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning timeframe, but there is some reliable model guidance that suggests the system might eject slower and be more of a Wednesday / Wednesday evening ordeal for our area.  We have PLENTY of time to try to figure out those details in the week ahead.  This is just an early tap on your shoulder to let you know that we have a system to watch and we want you to keep checking back in for updated information as we get closer.