Showers today, possibly a few flurries. Drier for end of the week. Warming through the weekend. Stormy next week.


Another disturbance in the large scale trough moves through the area today with showers moving across the area from the morning into the early afternoon.  This will also be in association with a cold front that moves through.  Temperatures in the mid 40s around midday will start dropping during the afternoon and reach the mid 30s by the end of the day.  As the colder air deepens, the showers will become much less widespread, but it’s very possible that they may switch over to a few scattered snow flurries or snow showers.  Unlike the snow situation last week, this won’t be a setup with Gulf moisture involved.  That means that any flurries will be isolated and actual impacts or accumulations are not expected.  Flurries and light showers come to an end overnight and temperatures eventually drop into the upper 20s by daybreak on Thursday.

Thursday will be the coldest day, with highs in the upper 40s, before the big trough starts shifting to the east and winds gradually switch more westerly.  Models have been steadily trending warmer with time concerning temperatures from Friday and especially the weekend.  With more of a westerly component aloft, less of the deeper cold air is tapped, and we’re having to bump up our afternoon highs because of that.  That also means that second chance of flurries that had earlier looked possible on Friday is looking more like an isolated rain shower chance for our area instead.

The weekend is looking dry and warmer with westerly flow aloft allowing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and a warming trend.  Afternoon highs on Saturday are expected into the upper 50s or maybe even lower 60s, and mid to maybe even upper 60s are looking more likely for Sunday.

Going into early next week, southwest flow aloft sets up over the area ahead of a big storm system out west.  That promotes strong southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico to bring moisture northward into the area.  Shower chances increase a little on Monday as moisture increases and the warm front moves through the area.  Afternoon highs in the upper 60s look increasingly likely, and we may have to continue to bump those closer to 70.  Low to maybe even mid 70s look to be the case for Tuesday as the storm system starts to eject out and approach the area.  At some point in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe, the storm system will move into the area, and that will mean a round of thunderstorms moves through the area.  It’s still way far out there, and there are some significant differences with both timing and evolution of the system, but this may just be a case where we have to watch for the potential for severe storms.  This could happen as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening, or some believable model solutions have been even as slow as Wednesday afternoon and evening.  We will figure all that out in the days ahead.  This is just an early notice to let you know we have a system to watch and that you need to keep checking back for updated information in the days ahead.