The big upper trough that has brought us dreary weather for the past several days is finally beginning to shift over to the east. This means we get left in northwest flow behind the cold front though. Despite skies becoming mostly sunny, today and tomorrow will be a bit on the chilly side with highs today only in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees and temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 50s. It won’t be quite as cool tomorrow, but there will still be a bit of a chill in the air, especially when the west-northwest wind kicks up during the day. There may also be a STRAY shower or two Friday as a weak disturbance moves across the area, but most folks stay dry and the best chance of a shower looks to be in northeast Alabama and adjacent areas of Tennessee.
Things begin to change as we head into the weekend though. High pressure shifts to our south and then southeast and this allows our winds to first shift around to the west, and then out of the southwest. That means a warming trend as winds start to come off the Gulf of Mexico as the high pressure shifts eastward. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 50s on Saturday, and even though clouds will start to increase on Sunday, it will be even warmer with highs in the mid 60s.
Showers will be possible on Monday as those southerly winds strengthen and bring moisture north, along with a warm front that will move northward through the area. Daytime highs on Monday, despite the increased clouds and chance of showers, will make it into the upper 60s, and we can’t rule out 70 degrees if there are a few breaks of sun in the clouds. That warm front continues lifting north of our area and puts us squarely in the warm sector of an approaching storm system by Tuesday into Wednesday. There are significant timing differences still, but it looks like there will likely be a round of thunderstorms at some point in the general time from late day Tuesday, Tuesday night, or possibly as late as Wednesday. We added thunderstorms on both days on the 7-day forecast to account for the timing uncertainty, but it won’t storm that whole time period. We just have increasing confidence in storms at some point in that time window, and then we will narrow the timing down as the details concerning that become more clear. Despite the timing differences, it is looking more and more like this may be a storm system that will bring the potential for severe weather to our general area… either here, very near here, or both… possibly over a large part of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and adjacent areas. Way too soon for details on exact areas at risk, exact timing, or the magnitude of the threat… but it is something we will have to watch carefully in the coming days. We can’t guarantee a severe weather event, but many other weather systems in the past that have “looked” like this one have produced severe storms in the area. Keep checking back for updated information in the days ahead as details become more clear.