Predawn scattered showers across the area will be coming to an end during the morning hours today, but we will be left with mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures because of that. Afternoon highs will only top out in the low 50s, and some communities across the coverage area may really struggle to get out of the upper 40s this afternoon. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight though, and that will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 30s across the area by daybreak Sunday, and as usual, our cooler spots across the coverage may be a few degrees cooler, possibly even flirting with the freezing mark. The weather really turns around for Sunday however, with sunny skies and southwesterly winds allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60s. Those southwest winds will be a bit breezy at times, around 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts as high as 20 mph being possible.
Monday will be another mild day, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s (maybe upper 60s if the clouds are a touch slower than currently expected), but we will start to be placed under southwest flow aloft between high pressure over Florida and the Bahamas and a developing storm system out west. This will mean those aforementioned clouds will be on the increase during the day. We do think that Monday itself will be dry, but showers become likely overnight, especially after midnight.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the most unsettled days, as we have expected for several days now, with that storm system out west slowly moving across the area and bringing periods of rain and thunderstorms. Rain on Tuesday is likely, but it won’t rain all day, but rather be periods of showers at times, but we can’t rule out a rumble of thunder or two. Wednesday is the stormy day across the area as a secondary low develops on the front over Mississippi and tracks either near us or just to our north. Rain and storms are likely, and some of that rainfall will probably be heavy at times. There is even a growing chance at some of the storms off to our south over central and southern areas of Alabama and Mississippi may be severe. As of right now, it looks like that severe weather risk will remain to our south, but it is too close for comfort, and we will be monitoring trends carefully.
The heavy rain moves out overnight Wednesday night as the main cold front moves into the area, and then the big story becomes temperatures. Temperatures on Thursday morning will start out in the upper 40s or maybe around 50 degrees, but then they fall off the table and end up dropping into the low 40s or maybe even as low as the upper 30s by afternoon. Disturbances in the upper flow behind the cold front will keep the clouds around, and there may be a few lingering showers at times on Thursday and then again Friday afternoon and evening. Both days will only have highs in the upper 40s (and could trend cooler), and morning temperatures below freezing make a return by Friday morning, with a morning low right now expected around 30 degrees, but upper 20s will be very possible.