Enjoy these beautiful sunny days with highs in the 80s, because they are not going anywhere for a few days. Upper level ridging continues to build over the region in response to a digging trough over the Southwest U.S. This will continue to usher in warmer and more humid air with return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to even upper 80s.
By Friday, the ridging begins to break down as the main trough shears out and a lagging shortwave kicks out of the Southwest. This will help spark some isolated storms for the region on Friday, but Saturday will likely feature better coverage at around 40-50%. Current consensus is that some places may not see any rain and some could see on an order of one half inch of rain. This will not be a flooding/heavy rainfall event, but do not be surprised to see some rain this weekend, particularly Saturday.
This shortwave will kick east of the region, clearing a large portion of the rainfall out. I have opted to keep isolated shower and thunderstorm chances in for Sunday and keeping a very isolated shower chance for Monday. A reinforcing shortwave on Monday could spark a shower or two, but will bring in some slightly cooler and drier air for Monday. Morning lows may dip back into the 50s with highs topping about 80 degrees. Things clear for later next week with near normal temps (highs near 80 and lows near 60).
Temperatures broke into the mid and upper 70s today under building upper level ridging ahead of the Great Plains system. Strong return flow from the south around a surface high pressure anchored off the Southeast coast, will usher in warmer, more humid air. Mostly sunny skies will prevail through Thursday as upper level ridging will keep a lid on any extensive clouds and rainfall. Tuesday will top out in the low 80s. Highs Wednesday and Thursday could very well top the mid 80s with upper 80s possible in some warmer locations.
By Friday, troughing over the Plains that will bring them a chance of severe weather will shear out and head eastward. This will help suppress the ridge and force a weak frontal boundary into the region. Only isolated showers and storms are expected from Friday through Sunday as the main dynamics lift northward. Highs will be a few degrees cooler with more clouds and rain.
By Monday, the main system will pull off to the east and upper level ridging will begin to build in again allowing highs to climb back into the 80s.
What has been a beautiful weekend for outdoor activities, this will continue into this week. A much warmer pattern will be taking hold and will stick around. Sunday will be the coolest day out of the forecast period with highs in the mid 60s, but upper level ridging will build ahead of large scale troughing that will be ejecting from the Inter-Mountain West and into the Plains. This will help push temps into the 70s by Monday.
Tuesday through the end of the forecast period will likely feature highs in the 80s, with the warmest days coming Thursday and Friday when 588dm ridging parks itself over the Southeast. Highs will crack the mid 80s and we cannot rule out a couple upper 80s readings in places that tend to run warm. No rain is expected through Thursday.
By Friday and Saturday, the troughing over the Rockies will eject east and shear out forcing a weak boundary into the region. This will be the focus for some isolated showers and thunderstorms for both days. Highs will probably be a couple degrees cooler with additional cloud cover and rainfall.