Forecast Blog

Summer Like Pattern Ahead…

After some unseasonably cooler weather, rising temps and increasing diurnal rain chances will be in forecast for the next week or so.  Friday will feature significantly warmer temps with increasing low level moisture.  It will feel warmer and we should see some clouds return, but rain chances will hold off.  Highs will soar into the upper 80s.  For Saturday, the ridging overhead will begin to erode and will permit just an isolated rain chance.  Most of the area will remain dry as only 10% to 20% coverage is forecasted.  Highs will rise again into the mid to upper 80s.

Later Saturday into Sunday, the main trough will begin to eject and erode the ridge even further.  A frontal boundary will shift into the region and permit a significant increase in showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.  An outside chance of a stronger storm is possible into Sunday and the highest coverage should be during the day.

By Sunday night, the core of rain will shift south of the Shoals and a slightly cooler/drier airmass in for Monday.  With the close proximity to the boundary, will keep a slight chance of rain, generally 20-30% coverage in for both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday will feature another disturbance shifting into the region with summer time precipitable water values in places.  Higher rain chances will return with highs in the upper 80s.  Summer time is finally here to stay….

Wet Weekend Ahead…Seasonably Cooler Next Week

With a summer pattern taking hold the last couple days and continuing into the first part of the weekend, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for both your Friday and Saturday.  Highs will push the upper 80s to near 90 both afternoon.

But, a large longwave trough will eject out of the Plains and erode the ridging overhead.  Summer time precipitable water values will entrain into the system allowing for a heavy rain potential with the approaching front Saturday night into Sunday.  A widespread 1-2″ of rain is likely through Sunday.  Severe weather looks unlikely at this time, but an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out.  Sunday will be on the rain cooled side with highs only near 80 degrees.

The heavy rain threat will persist from Saturday night into Sunday, but will wane later Sunday into Monday and some slightly drier air moves into the region.  The front will be close enough that a scattered shower/storm chance cannot be ruled out.  Large scale troughing will continue across the Central/Eastern U.S. and permit a rain chance each day through Wednesday.

Right now, it will be hard to pinpoint any little disturbance within the northwesterly flow, but any will have a chance to spark off showers and storms.  A much bigger surge of drier air looks to move into the region by late next week drying the region out.

Summer Pattern Ahead…

After some rainy weather for your Friday, clearing will take place for Saturday.  Some clouds for the first part of the day will clear and lead to mostly sunny skies.  Highs will generally be in the upper 70s with a northerly breeze.  Upper level ridging will begin to build over the region as large scale troughing dives into the West.

With the building ridging over the region, fully sunny skies will prevail Sunday into the middle of next week.  Highs will climb into the 80s by Sunday and Monday.  Highs will likely push 90 for both Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high and upper level ridging coincide across the Shoals.  This will lead to a very summer like feel.  A few low 90s are not out of the question.

By Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging will shift east of the region and large scale troughing will shift into the Plains.  Moisture return on the western side of the ridge will allow for rain chances to return by Thursday and Friday with typical dirunally driven convection.

Beyond the forecast package, large scale troughing ejects into the Mid-South and will likely introduce another period of widespread rainfall.