After a rainy first half of the weekend, rain will be making a return for your Monday. An ongoing complex of storms will be approaching the region from the west early in the day Monday. Capping will be in place across the region for most of the morning and midday, so we can’t rule out a shower or two, but expect partly cloudy skies to begin your Monday. The shortwave will eject east and allow enough forcing to break capping and develop scattered showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has outlined the Shoals in a slight risk. Parameters point to hail, some possibly large, with any thunderstorms that go severe. Highs will likely pop up into the upper 70s due to the capping and, combined with low to mid 60 dew points, should yield CAPE values sufficient for severe weather.
Thunderstorms will continue into Monday night and early Tuesday morning but will taper in intensity and coverage. Tuesday should be mostly cloudy with lingering isolated showers. Wednesday will be the same with only widely isolated thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will amplify over the region, so high temps will likely reach 80 degrees area wide. Most places should remain dry outside an isolated storm or two.
Thursday will be the next available shot at more widespread showers and thunderstorms. A large scale occluded trough over the Southern Plains will eject eastward. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany this, but questions on whether any severe will also accompany this system linger. Models are still struggling to resolve the northward extent of the warm sector and best instability.
Showers and storms will continue into later Thursday and early Friday, but will begin to taper. A slightly cooler and drier airmass works in behind the system. The next trough drops into the west and ridging amplifies over the Eastern U.S. with a warmer and drier pattern returning for the weekend. Stay weather aware this coming week and we will provide the latest updates with these systems. Have multiple ways to get warnings.
The big cut off low over the Southern Plains that has generated a large squall line will continue to lumber eastward. Mesoscale models have the squall line racing east into the MS Valley by early Saturday morning and then into MS/AL by later morning into midday. Strong mid and lower level winds will provide a driving mechanism for potential damaging winds within the squall line as it moves east with time. The SPC has outlined that threat in a standard slight risk.
Behind that initial squall, there should be an additional period of atmospheric recovery behind the QCLS and the main cut off trough still to our west, scattered storms could develop through the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours of Saturday. The main trough will lift NE leaving a trailing boundary over the region. With flow parallel to the boundary, little to no movement is expected as it washes out.
By Sunday, the main forcing is north and east of the region and only a slight chance of showers and an isolated storm is possible. Moisture will remain in place ahead of another system for Monday. Highs will remain in the mid 70s both Sunday and Monday.
Monday’s system will feature a shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains into a moist warm sector. Strong capping will prevent any early initialization of storms until later in the day. There is some mixed solutions within model guidance (including strength and timing of the system), so will hold off on elaborating further.
Tuesday-Thursday will be in between days before our next system. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm are possible both days but coverage should be limited as a slightly drier airmass works in and rising heights ahead of the next system will cap any widespread storms. Better moisture recovery will work in Thursday and highs should pop into the mid and even upper 70s.
Friday will be the calm before the storm, so to speak, as it will be the last dry day in an upcoming stormy spring pattern. Partly cloudy skies will yield enough surface heating to bounce into the mid 70s as increasing clouds move in ahead of the next system on Saturday.
The SPC has outlined the Shoals in a slight risk for severe weather for Saturday. Current thinking is the large cut off trough out over the Southern Plains will begin to assume a negative tilt as it ejected NE from the Plains. This will go ahead and provide divergence aloft and allow for numerous thunderstorm development Saturday.
Moisture return on Saturday will allow dew points to recover into the low 60s with enough surface heating to have high pop into the 70s. This will yield enough CAPE that should permit some severe storms on Saturday. Bulk shear values in the 35-40 kt range are sufficient for organized storms on Saturday. But the lack of stronger deep layer shear is one main limiting factor preventing a larger scale event. But be weather aware Saturday and we will have an updated blog later Friday that will detail this system even further. A few severe storms are possible.
Showers and storm will continue overnight Saturday and into Sunday as the main trough lifts NE toward the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. The flow becomes parallel to the front and this will mean the boundary will stall nearby the region lending to a continuing rain chance into Sunday.
It won’t be long before the next shortwave ejects from the Plains and provides a forcing mechanism for more rain Monday and into Tuesday. There are some timing and strength variations between the models that would affect coverage. But, expect another potential widespread round of rain later Monday and Monday night into Tuesday.
The shortwave will kick out of the region and put the Shoals on the backside. Subsidence will overtake the region and drier air will work in. This will end rain chances into Wednesday and Thursday, but another storm system looms just beyond this forecast period for late next week. We will focus more on that once this weekend’s system is out of our hair.